The RBA’s latest rate decision was anything but straightforward.

A 5–4 split has pushed the cash rate higher, at a time when households are already facing rising fuel costs and ongoing pressure on affordability.

So what problem is this rate rise actually trying to solve?

In this episode, we unpack the growing divide in economic thinking. Is inflation being driven by demand, or by global forces beyond our control? Are we moving too early, or doing what’s necessary to stay ahead?

We also explore what this means on the ground. Consumer confidence, spending behaviour, borrowing capacity, and the early signals in the labour market.

And with the RBA acknowledging that a recession is a risk, we ask the question many are starting to consider.

How far does this tightening cycle go, and what does the economy look like on the other side?

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In this episode of Behind The Numbers, we unpack exclusive REIP behavioural data revealing how the market is really moving beneath the headlines.

Seller appraisals strengthened early in the year, signalling renewed intent. Buyer inspections have been active but sensitive to interest rate shifts. And in the rental market, actual lease outcomes are showing tighter conditions than advertised rents suggest.

We also examine the growing conversation around potential changes to the Capital Gains Tax discount. What could this mean for investor confidence, rental supply and long-term market stability?

Joining us are Cate Bakos and Cameron Kusher as we explore how policy signals, investor sentiment and real-time activity are shaping the next phase of the property cycle.

This is not speculation. It’s behaviour.

And the signals matter.

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January has confirmed what many already felt – Australia’s property market is moving, but not in one direction.

In this January Behind the Numbers wrap, we unpack a highly diverse market. National home values lifted modestly, but growth varied sharply by location. Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra recorded slower conditions, while Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin continued to outperform. Several regional markets also posted stronger growth than their capital city counterparts.

We explore why Melbourne unit prices are now rising faster than houses, driven largely by first home buyers seeking affordability and proximity. We also discuss investor behaviour, rental yields, and why Melbourne is increasingly viewed as a value market.

On lending, higher prices are translating into larger loan sizes, with average settled loans up around 11 per cent year on year. With inflation back in focus and interest rate expectations shifting, we look at how borrowers are responding, particularly around serviceability, pre-approvals and timing.

Migration, supply constraints and tight rental conditions continue to shape outcomes across the country, keeping vacancy rates low and rents under pressure.

As always, this episode focuses on what the data is really telling us – and how Australians are navigating the market right now.

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