In this episode of The European Market Brief, Mark Longo is joined by Dr. Russell Rhoads (IU Kelley School of Business), Steve Sosnick (Interactive Brokers), and Matt Riley (Eurex) to dissect a rapidly shifting landscape. With the Iran conflict crossing the one-month mark, the panel explores why the "shock and awe" expectations of a quick resolution have evaporated, replaced by fears of a lingering market impact through the end of the year.

Key Topics Covered:

• The VSTOXX 30-Handle: We haven't seen these levels in a year. Is the current spike justified, or are traders "once bitten, twice shy" after the quick recoveries of 2025?

• The Great Divergence: Why the U.S. and Europe are splitting on rate expectations—from "endless cuts" to potential hikes.

• Free Data for the "Eurex-Curious": Steve Sosnick breaks down Interactive Brokers' new initiative providing free real-time Eurex data for retail and institutional traders.

• Rotation vs. Repatriation: Is the "Sell America" trade real? Why investors are looking at the STOXX 600 for value and diversification away from the Mag 7.

• The Red Phone: The team answers listener questions on the Brent/WTI spread and whether the U.S. Midterms are actually being priced into European vol.

This episode is brought to you by Eurex—the home of Euro STOXX, VSTOXX, DAX, and European rates derivatives.

The trading landscape for European rates has shifted violently in just a matter of weeks. In this episode of The European Market Brief, host Mark Longo sits down with two industry experts to dissect the sudden pivot from rate-cut expectations to a reality where rate hikes are back on the table.

Joining the program are Dan Collins, Head of Futures and Options Rates at Aurel Partners, and Andreas Stillert, Vice President and Global Product Lead for Short-Term Interest Rate (STIR) Products at Eurex. Together, they break down the "dual system" of Euribor and ESTR, the dramatic flip in option skew from calls to puts, and how geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East is refueling inflation fears across the pond.

In this episode, we explore:

• The ESTR vs. SOFR Dynamic: Understanding the nuances of the European risk-free rate versus its US counterpart.

• The Great Pivot: Why the market went from 100% certainty of rate cuts to pricing in potential hikes by year-end.

• Volatility & Skew: Analyzing the "unthinkable" shift in the options market over the last fortnight.

• Listener Q&A: We tackle "The Red Phone" questions regarding private credit risks in Europe and the mechanics of the ESTR/repo basis trade.

The trading day doesn't start at the bell—it starts with the data. In this episode of The European Market Brief, Mark Longo heads across the pond to dive deep into the mechanics of the European rates market.

He is joined by an expert panel featuring Dr. Russell Rhoads (Indiana University), Rex Jones (Eurex), and Mingyue Xin (Deutsche Bank) to break down one of the most critical yet misunderstood periods in the derivatives calendar: The Roll.

Inside this episode:

• The "Jelly Roll" Debate: Why the transition from March to June is a "subculture" unto itself in the rates market.

• The Art & Science of the Roll: Finding the "sweet spot" for execution and avoiding the pitfalls of being a late roller.

• US vs. EU Rates: Structural differences in delivery dates and how they impact your portfolio.

• Basis Trading 101: Why hedge funds are fixated on the basis trade and how to understand "Net Basis."

• Cheapest to Deliver (CTD): Understanding the delivery basket and the conversion factor for Bund, Bobl, and Schatz.

Whether you're a seasoned pro or new to the rates complex, learn how to navigate the cross-border volatility and innovation that makes the European marketplace so fascinating.