Bitcoin is up 19% from the February lows, but Mike argues this still looks more like a bear market bounce than a true bottom. He and Ryan break down why weak ETF flows, soft onchain activity, fading risk appetite, and rolling liquidity still do not look like the kind of setup that usually marks a durable low. They also map out the key BTC levels that would force a change in view, and what real capitulation tends to look like when the cycle finally turns.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:50 Polling Investor Sentiment

4:22 The Four-Year Cycle Explained

13:02 Market Dynamics and Investor Psychology

17:17 Examining Current Liquidity Conditions

27:31 Fiscal Policy and Its Impact

29:07 On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin

39:10 Understanding Market Trends and Patterns

44:04 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Markets ripped on the Iran ceasefire headlines, but Mike says the bigger bearish process may still be unfolding.

Mike and David break down why Bitcoin, oil, global liquidity, and the S&P’s 200-day moving average are all flashing mixed signals, and why the real bottom may still require more pain, patience, and weak-hand capitulation.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
2:56 Market Reactions to Ceasefire
6:28 Analyzing the Bull & Bear Cases
11:02 The Pessimist's Perspective
15:34 Iran's Strategic Position
22:37 Understanding the Liquidity Cycle
26:58 The Long-Term View on Bitcoin
31:34 Short-Term Market Signals
36:08 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is down 47% from the highs, but Mike says the real “fat pitch” still hasn’t arrived.

Mike and Ryan break down where BTC could actually bottom using realized price, the 200-week moving average, and deep value onchain signals, plus why oil, Iran, rates, and recession risk still matter more than most crypto investors think.

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📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING

https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne

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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:16 Buffett's Market Perspective

4:45 Galaxy One Staking Launch

6:31 War's Impact on Markets

11:07 Energy Crisis Analysis

14:03 Fed Rate Predictions

18:11 Speculating on Trump's Announcement

24:50 Bitcoin Price Analysis

28:14 Deep Value & Market Strategy

32:53 Altcoins & Crypto Equities

35:04 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.